By Megan Twohey MCT

It was July, and Cassie Eller had still not picked a college.

The 18-year-old with red hair and a shy smile had been an average student on the non-honors track at Middleton High School.

But her 2.8 grade-point average and ACT score of 18 had not made the cut at the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh, which told her not to apply, or UW-Platteville, where she was denied admission.

The schools that had accepted her – UW-Milwaukee and Madison Area Technical College – had sparked debate within her family.

Her mother, Janelle Eller, thought she could do well at UWM. Her father was doubtful.

“When you go to college, the competition level goes up,” said Duane Eller. “Cassie has always been a good student, but she’s struggled in areas like math. I thought, ‘Let’s take this in stages, and start out at MATC.'”

Cassie’s older sister, who enrolled in UWM years earlier, dropped out after her sophomore year.

“My dad was worried I would drop out like my sister,” Eller said.

Statistics support her father’s fear.

Only four out of 10 freshmen at UWM graduate within six years. Three out of 10 drop out after the first year.

Those retention and graduation rates are typical of the non-selective universities and community colleges that serve the vast majority of the nation’s college students.

Last year, UWM launched a variety of initiatives designed to keep freshmen in class and on track. The programs, which include mentoring and revised remedial courses, are showing signs of success.

But the university’s leaders concede there’s only so much they can do.

Academic credentials have been proved to be the biggest indicator of success in college.