We are now two-thirds of the way through Mid-American Conference (MAC) play and first-place Ball State’s 74-69 victory over Eastern Michigan clinched a place in the 2025 MAC tournament for the Cardinals.
Consequently, the loss puts winless Eastern Michigan on the brink of MAC tournament elimination. The Eagles must win out to have a slim shot at the eighth seed in the tournament.
With six games remaining until eight teams advance to the MAC Tournament in Cleveland, I will categorize the teams into three distinct tiers going forward: The Top, The Bubble, and The Bottom.
The Top Tier is comprised of teams that have either clinched a spot in the tournament or have records well above the nine seed.
The Bubble Tier is comprised of teams with close records whose hopes for a Cleveland postseason are still very much up in the air.
The Bottom Tier is comprised of teams on the brink of elimination, or whose record is well below the eighth seed.
Top Tier
1. Ball State (20-5, 12-0 MAC)
Through two-thirds of the season, the undefeated Cardinals remain the clear favorite to win the MAC regular season title. The five-point victory over Eastern Michigan not only clinched Ball State a spot in Cleveland but also helped them remain three games up on Buffalo and Toledo.
At least guaranteed a 12-6 record, Ball State should be a lock for a top-four seed in Cleveland. The biggest questions remaining are whether they can hold on to the top seed and potentially make history as the sixth-ever undefeated team in MAC women’s basketball history (2006 Bowling Green, 1998 Kent State, 1989 Bowling Green, 1987 Bowling Green, 1984 Central Michigan).
Ball State will have two top-five matchups this week at Toledo and vs. Kent State.
2. Buffalo (20-4, 9-3 MAC)
After getting swept last week, Buffalo got back on track with a 12-point victory over Ohio. Fifth-year guard Chellia Watson led the charge, exploiting the Bobcats’ defense with 21 points, four assists, and five rebounds. Watson’s conference-leading 20.1 points per game (PPG) now ranks 19th in the country.
Buffalo is still within striking distance of the top seed, but it is more realistic that they’ll be in the two to four range. To stay second, Buffalo will have to fend off two teams they have previously lost to: fourth-place Kent State and third-place Toledo; the latter of which is the hottest team in the MAC right now.
Buffalo will have to wait till Feb. 26 to play Toledo but will host Kent State in their next game on Feb. 19. They will also travel to Oxford this Saturday to play a rising Miami squad.
3. Toledo (18-5, 9-3 MAC)
The Rockets’ conference-best win streak improved to six games this week after blowing out Akron by 21. Despite having the same conference record as Buffalo and beating Buffalo earlier in the season, Toledo is just below them in the standings because of their worse overall record.
The Feb. 26 game against Buffalo will be huge for Toledo as it may decide who gets second or third place. Overall, if Toledo keeps playing as well as they are, they could be a dark horse to beat Ball State in the tournament.
The Rockets will host Ball State this week and then drive down I-75 to the Stroh Center to try and complete the season sweep against their arch-rival, Bowling Green.
4. Kent State (16-9, 8-4 MAC)
The Golden Flashes lost a heartbreaker against Miami last week. Kent State was up by five at halftime before losing the third quarter 24-8 to the Redhawks. Despite a valiant effort in the fourth, it wasn’t enough, as Kent State still came up short by two, making it their second conference loss in a row.
The loss separates Kent State from Toledo and Buffalo by a game. This is big because although Kent State beat Buffalo, they got crushed by Toledo back in mid-January. Their overall record is also a few games worse than the top three teams as well.
While Kent State almost certainly will make the tournament, their seed in the bracket is extremely up in the air. The top three teams as well as Miami and Bowling Green, who are just below them, are all playing well. The Golden Flashes will look to switch up this negative momentum and gain significant ground in the standings with two road games this week against Buffalo and Ball State.
Bubble Tier
5. Miami (15-8, 7-5 MAC)
I debated putting Miami in the Top Tier because of how well they are playing as of late. The Redhawks are on a four-game winning streak after beating Kent State and they continue to have the best defense in the conference. A big reason for this is the center, Ilse de Vries. The Dutch freshman has eight blocks in the last five games and has the third-most blocks per game in the conference.
However, I am currently placing them on the Bubble Tier because the Redhawks’ early season struggles make their record a slightly above average 7-5. A late-season slip-up against a tough part of their schedule could still cause them to miss the tournament.
They will look to avoid this and cement themselves in the Top Tier in the MAC going forward as they play at Akron and host Buffalo this week.
6. Bowling Green (13-11, 6-6 MAC)
The quality victory over Arkansas State lit a fire in Bowling Green as their offense exploded to 70 points in their 15-point victory over Central Michigan last week.
Inserting freshman guard Johnea Donahue into the starting lineup has been a major reason for the Falcons’ recent success. She is tied for the most steals per game in the conference (2.5) and has been a phenomenal facilitator for the offense.
Although Bowling Green is playing well, they have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the conference all season, constantly bouncing up and down this Bubble Tier of the standings. If they can have another solid week this week against Western Michigan and Toledo, then there will be some serious separation between the top half and bottom half of the standings.
7. Western Michigan (10-13, 6-6 MAC)
The Broncos are 2-4 in their last six conference games and have dropped two spots in the standings since the one-third mark of conference play. Like Bowling Green, they are also inconsistent, especially offensively, scoring just 51 points in their nine-point loss to Northern Illinois (NIU) last week. Their 57.3 PPG ranks last in the MAC for the fourth week in a row.
The NIU loss may be the most important loss of the year for Western Michigan because it means they have lost to the current eighth and ninth-place (Central Michigan) teams this season.
The Broncos have shown flashes of a talented and dangerous team this season. However, if they lose to sixth-place Bowling Green on Wednesday and/or Central Michigan on Saturday, their fate in the MAC tournament may be limited to an eighth-seeded matchup against powerhouse Ball State or to sitting and watching the games from Cleveland on their couch.
8. Northern Illinois (12-12, 5-7 MAC)
Here come the Huskies. Northern Illinois won their third consecutive game last week, beating Western Michigan by nine. Their 4-2 conference record over the last six games has caused them to move up more spots (two) in the standings than any other team since the one-third mark.
More importantly, NIU has moved back into the MAC Tournament as the current eighth seed. However, they still have a losing conference record and could easily move out of the eighth seed with a loss or two next week.
NIU will try to continue their hot streak against the two worst teams in the conference this week, Ohio and Eastern Michigan.
9. Central Michigan (10-14, 5-7 MAC)
The Chippewas couldn’t do anything against the Bowling Green defense this week. CMU was down by 20 at halftime and senior guard Jess Lawson ended up being their leading scorer with just 13 points.
A bright spot from the Bowling Green loss was freshman forward Ayanna-Sarai Darrington who put up an 11-point, 10 rebound double-double. Darrington averages 9.7 PPG and 6.2 rebounds per game (RPG) on the season but might need to get called on more often if they want to rise back into MAC Tournament contention.
CMU will face both of their mitten state rivals this week, Western and Eastern Michigan, in an attempt to fight their way back into being the eighth or seventh seed in the MAC Tournament.
Bottom Tier
10. Akron (9-16, 3-9 MAC)
The Zips’ losing streak was extended to nine games after getting demolished 54-75 against Toledo last week. Akron is definitely in this Bottom Tier in the MAC because they haven’t won a game since Jan. 8 against Northern Illinois.
The January victory over NIU does bode well for Akron since they would have the tiebreaker over the current eight-seeded Huskies. However, it will be an uphill battle to climb back up to the eighth seed, where Akron once was six games ago.
The Zips need Central Michigan, NIU, Bowling Green, and Western Michigan to struggle this week while they try to break their losing streak against Miami and Ohio.
11. Ohio (4-19, 2-10 MAC)
The Bobcats losing streak reached five games after losing 67-79 against Buffalo last week. The loss gives Ohio double-digit losses on the season and puts them in a considerable three-game hole behind Northern Illinois.
Realistically, Ohio probably has to win out to go 8-10 and have a slim shot at the eighth seed. However, Ohio’s 11th-ranked MAC offense and 11th-ranked MAC defense will probably have a tough time doing so.
The Bobcats face off against NIU and Akron this week, two games that could potentially push them up to tenth place after this week since the opponents are directly in front of Ohio in the standings.
12. Eastern Michigan (1-22, 0-12 MAC)
On one hand, the Eagles became one of the closest teams to beating Ball State last week, losing by just five points. On the other hand, they still lost, making them 0-12 in the season.
The loss means that the best they could finish would be 6-12. To do so, they have to beat two 5-7 squads this week, Central Michigan and Northern Illinois.
This means that Eastern Michigan must get a sweep this week and win out the rest of their season to have any mathematical shot at making the tournament as the eighth seed. It’s probably less than a 1% chance, but the Eagles are still clinging to some very slim hope.
