The Mid-American Conference (MAC) is heading into its final weekend of February basketball on Saturday and postseason tensions are heating up.
This upcoming weekend will be crucial for tournament seeding and potential eliminations from contention because there are only five conference games left on the schedule.
I will be breaking down how each team’s Saturday game could impact their fates for Cleveland by grouping them into five categories to describe their current states: a top seed contender, a riser & faller, a bubble team, a team at risk of being eliminated or a team already eliminated.
Top Seed Contenders
Ball State lost their first conference game of the season on Wednesday in a 70-66 thriller against Toledo, so it’s now realistically a three-way race for the top seed between Ball State (12-1 in MAC), Buffalo (10-3 in MAC) and Toledo (10-3 in MAC).
The loss is surely disappointing for Ball State, who hoped to become the sixth undefeated team in MAC women’s basketball history. However, it may be good for them to get the loss out of the way in the regular season and move on without having the pressure to be undefeated.
All the pressure on the Cardinals now is coming from the Rockets and Bulls. Toledo’s victory over Ball State gives them seven in a row, making them the hottest team in the MAC. Buffalo also won on Wednesday, beating Kent State by six, giving the Bulls a series split against the Golden Flashes.
Despite being the only team out of the three to lose on Wednesday, Ball State is still in the best position to get the number one seed in the MAC Tournament. The Cardinals are two games ahead and just need to win three out of their last five to secure the spot.
Ball State plays Kent State at noon on Saturday. Although they will remain in first place with a loss, a win would make it much more difficult for Toledo and Buffalo to catch up since three out of Ball State’s remaining four games feature teams with a losing MAC record.
Toledo is in the next best position to nab the top spot because they have beaten Buffalo and split with Ball State. The Rockets Feb. 26 game against Buffalo will be enormous for seeding but Toledo can’t overlook their rival Bowling Green this Saturday.
The Stroh Center environment will most likely be rambunctious and difficult to play in. If Toledo can sweep their rivals and add an eighth win to their winning streak it will greatly bolster their chances of getting a top three seed and clinch them a spot in the MAC Tournament.
Although Buffalo has the lowest chance, they still have hope to become the one seed. A win on Saturday against a surging Miami team would help a lot and would also clinch a spot in the MAC Tournament for the Bulls.
Risers and Fallers
Miami and Kent State (both 8-5 in MAC) are going in completely opposite directions. While both teams have the same record and are probably safe to make the tournament, Miami is a team on the rise while Kent State is falling fast.
The RedHawks have jumped from sixth to fourth place over the last three weeks after winning five straight games, including a 12-point victory over Akron on Wednesday. Miami’s top-ranked MAC defense is the 31st-best in the country (56.3 opponents points per game) and hasn’t given up over 65 points in a game since their Jan. 25 loss to Kent State. Combining their defensive prowess with their improving offense, they look like a team that nobody would want to play in the MAC Tournament right now.
Unfortunately for the Golden Flashes, that is exactly what would happen if the season ended today. Kent State would have the five-seed with Miami in fourth.
Kent State has lost three consecutive conference games and faces a tough Ball State opponent on Saturday. An upset win for the Golden Flashes would help them inch closer to getting a top-three seed. A loss would almost certainly make them stuck playing Miami, or a top-three seed in the first round.
Miami on the other hand faces Buffalo on Saturday for the second time this season. Although the RedHawks lost by eight the first time around, they have since improved drastically and I wouldn’t be surprised if they got an upset win. If Miami wins, they will have a shot at a top-three seed in the tournament. If they lose, there will be a three-game gap between them and Buffalo in the standings.
Bubble Teams
Bowling Green (7-6 in MAC), Central Michigan (6-7 in MAC), Western Michigan (6-7 in MAC) and Northern Illinois (5-8 in MAC) are all on the bubble of going to Cleveland.
With Ohio and Akron struggling heavily, likely only one of the four bubble squads won’t make the tournament, but which team will that be, what seeds will these four teams end up at and how will Saturday’s game help in determining these questions?
Bowling Green has been the most consistent team of the bunch as of late. The current sixth-place Falcons beat Western Michigan (WMU) by seven on Wednesday to give them their third-straight win.
The Orange & Brown take on Toledo at home on Saturday night in a rivalry rematch. If Bowling Green wins, they could potentially be tied with Kent State if the Golden Flashes lose to Ball State.
Bowling Green’s winning record gives them the best chance to potentially take over fifth place next week from the slumping Kent State squad. This would be huge because it likely would mean avoiding Buffalo and Ball State in the first round, two teams Bowling Green lost to by double digits earlier this year.
Central Michigan (CMU) and Western Michigan (WMU) face off against each other on Saturday in a rivalry contest in Mount Pleasant. The game might be the most important one of the weekend as the winner will move to .500 and give them a slight cushion as the seventh seed. The loser must hope Northern Illinois (NIU) becomes the first team to lose to Eastern Michigan (EMU) to avoid dropping to the ninth seed.
If NIU beats EMU they will move back into the coveted eighth-seed slot. An upset loss would be detrimental to NIU, keeping them in ninth place, a game back from the CMU/WMU loser and the potential to be chased down by Akron or Ohio.
Elimination Risks
Akron (3-10 in MAC) and Ohio (2-11 in MAC) are playing each other this weekend and are both at high risk of elimination.
It’s hard to believe that a once 3-1 second-place Akron team has lost nine conference games in a row, but that’s exactly the hole the Zips have dug for themselves. A loss against Ohio on Saturday would put Akron at 3-11 and give them extremely little hope to make the tournament.
Because Western Michigan faces Central Michigan, one of those teams will be 6-8 after Saturday. This means that if Akron loses on Saturday they would need to win their remaining four games, the loser of the CMU/WMU game to lose their next four games and have NIU win one or fewer games to have a slim shot at the eight-seed.
A win for Akron would make it slightly easier to get the eighth seed as it would put them two games back. However, they will still likely have to win out to have a realistic shot at making the tournament.
As for Ohio, a loss against Akron would eliminate them from the tournament immediately. To make the tournament, Ohio must win out and hope for the same CMU, WMU and NIU situation as Akron has above.
Eliminated
Eastern Michigan became the first team to get eliminated from MAC Tournament contention after losing by 12 on Wednesday to Central Michigan.
The Eagles are now 1-23 overall and a win in their Saturday contest against NIU will only help them to not have the worst record in the country.
