Four games remain and three teams have clinched spots in the Mid-American (MAC) Tournament. Ball State clinched last week, Buffalo clinched with a victory over Miami this week and Toledo clinched because of a Western Michigan loss.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Ohio and Akron are holding onto an extremely slim chance of making the tournament and each could be eliminated with a loss in their next game.
The middle six teams are starting to slowly separate in the standings. Bowling Green and Central Michigan are getting hot while Northern Illinois’ shocking loss to Eastern Michigan pushes them to the bottom of the bubble teams.
This week’s games are massively important as they have the potential to clinch a few more spots in the MAC Tournament as well as eliminate more teams.
Clinched
1. Ball State (20-7, 12-2 MAC)
Ball State is finally starting to look human. The Cardinals dropped their second straight game to a previously struggling Kent State team 60-54 on Saturday.
Although the Cardinals’ defense played great, it was the third-lowest scoring output from the Ball State offense all season. The most glaring issue was that Ball State was outrebounded 42-29, which helped Kent State to get 12 more points in the paint and 8 more fast break points than the Cardinals.
Back-to-back Ball State losses have turned the once clear-cut MAC regular season title into a three-team race that could potentially come down to the Buffalo vs. Ball State matchup on Wed. Mar. 5.
However, Ball State can’t afford to look past the two hungry teams on the bubble that they face next week, Central Michigan and Western Michigan.
2. Buffalo (22-4, 11-3 MAC)
The Bulls couldn’t have asked for a better Saturday of basketball, crushing red-hot Miami by 14 while both Ball State and Toledo lost their games. This results in Buffalo being one game back from first place and one game ahead of Toledo.
Buffalo will face Toledo on Wednesday and last-place Eastern Michigan on Saturday. The Toledo game will be the biggest game of the year for Buffalo because they lost to the Rockets earlier this season.
Another loss to Toledo on Wednesday could drop Buffalo to third place. However, two Buffalo wins this week may set us up for a Mar. 5 showdown between Buffalo and Ball State with first place on the line.
3. Toledo (19-6, 10-4 MAC)
The Rockets suffered a painful 81-72 loss to Bowling Green on Saturday to end their seven-game winning streak.
The 81 points were the most given up by the Rockets in a MAC game this season. Toledo’s fifth-ranked MAC defense had previously only given up 80 or more points twice all year, once against Iowa and once against Maryland.
Toledo must clean up their defense next week because they play Buffalo, the MAC’s best offense on Wednesday. A loss would almost certainly mean Toledo will end up in third or fourth place. A win would mean a series sweep for Toledo and a realistic shot at a top-two seed. The Rockets also take on Central Michigan on Saturday in what could potentially be a preview for a first-round MAC Tournament matchup.
Middle Tier
4. Kent State (17-10, 9-5 MAC)
After losing three straight MAC games, the Golden Flashes didn’t mess around on Saturday afternoon, jumping out to an early lead and never giving it up in their 60-54 victory over Ball State.
The upset win combined with Miami’s loss has jumped Kent State back to fourth place in the standings. The Golden Flashes still have a realistic shot at third place but could easily drop to fifth or sixth with losses this week.
To avoid this drop in the standings and to clinch a spot in Cleveland, Kent State will likely need one or two wins against Northern Illinois and Akron this week.
5. Miami (16-9, 8-6 MAC)
The Redhawks’ top-ranked MAC defense was caught flat-footed against the Bulls’ top-ranked MAC offense on Saturday, getting demolished in the first quarter 20-5.
Despite an insane 14-point, 20-rebound performance by sophomore power forward Amber Tretter, Miami couldn’t climb back into the game and lost by 14.
Tretter has tallied double-digit rebounds in four straight games and has back-to-back double-doubles.
Her rebounding ability will be crucial if Miami wants to solidify its spot in the MAC Tournament. They could potentially do so with wins over Eastern Michigan and Ohio this week.
6. Bowling Green (15-11, 8-6 MAC)
The Orange & Brown are amid a late-season offensive onslaught, scoring over 70 points in four straight games. The 81-72 rivalry victory over Toledo extends Bowling Green’s winning streak to a conference-high four games and has set them up with the opportunity to move into fifth place.
Senior point guard Amy Velasco dropped a season-high 30 points against Toledo while freshman guard Johnea Donahue’s defense was ferocious, tallying a career-high eight steals in the win.
The Falcons face Ohio and Northern Illinois this week. A winless week would put them right back on the bubble, a 1-1 week will likely keep them out of the bubble and a week sweep could clinch Bowling Green a tournament spot.
Bubble Teams
7. Central Michigan (12-14, 7-7 MAC)
It was a pretty good week to be a Chippewa fan. Not only did Central Michigan (CMU) catapult themselves back up to seventh place by winning both games, but they did so by beating both of their archrivals (Eastern Michigan (EMU) and Western Michigan (WMU)).
The Chippewas have a three-headed monster in freshman guard Madi Morson, senior guard Jess Lawson and freshman forward Ayanna-Sarai Darrington. The trio combined for 48 of the 56 total points and 23 of the 47 rebounds in Saturday’s win over WMU. If that trio continues to play well, Central Michigan will be a tough team to beat down the stretch of the season.
CMU is certainly on the bubble still and will need their trio of stars to be on point this week as they face Ball State and Toledo.
8. Western Michigan (10-15. 6-8 MAC)
WMU’s last-ranked MAC offense was held to just 43 points on Saturday while getting outrebounded by 17 against CMU. The Broncos are now on a three-game losing streak but remain the eighth seed because of Northern Illinois’ (NIU) loss to EMU.
WMU has been held under 50 points a conference-high seven times this season. Something offensive must change for them going forward if they want to remain in the top eight seeds.
WMU faces off against Akron and Ball State this week. At least a week’s split will be crucial for them to cement themselves as either the seventh or eighth seed.
9. Northern Illinois (12-14, 5-9 MAC)
The Huskies dropped a heartbreaker to Ohio on Wednesday and then outdid themselves by losing yet another heartbreaker to winless Eastern Michigan on Saturday. These upset losses couldn’t have come at a worse time as eight-seeded Western Michigan also lost both games this week.
Even one win would have brought NIU back up to MAC Tournament contention. However, their 0-2 week keeps them stuck in ninth place on the outside looking in.
Northern Illinois will have a much tougher week this week, playing Kent State and Bowling Green. At least one win would be huge for NIU to get back into the hunt for the eighth seed. Two NIU losses and two Western Michigan wins would eliminate NIU from the tournament.
Elimination Risks
10. Ohio (6-19, 4-10 MAC)
The Bobcats won both games last week, including a 70-62 victory over Akron to leapfrog the Zips in the standings.
Kennedi Watkins was vital to the Bobcats’ success, scoring 23 points against NIU and 13 against Akron. The senior guard ranks seventh in the MAC in points per game (15.1) and Ohio will need her to continue her success if they want to jump Northern Illinois in the standings this week.
Ohio faces Bowling Green and Miami this week and will likely need to win both games to avoid being eliminated.
11. Akron (9-18, 3-11 MAC)
The Zips’ 11-game losing streak is now the longest in the conference. Akron must win all four games down the stretch of the season to have a shot at the eighth seed and the MAC Tournament.
Those games will be against Western Michigan, Kent State, Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan.
Eliminated
12. Eastern Michigan (2-23, 1-13 MAC)
Eastern Michigan finally won a MAC matchup, upsetting NIU 76-72 on Saturday. The win ends an 18-game losing streak that spanned nearly three months.
The win was the Eagles’ best offensive performance since their Jan. 4 90-76 loss to Bowling Green and it spoiled NIU’s chance to move back up to eighth place.
EMU will try to continue to play spoiler against Miami and Buffalo this week.
