The Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently reported a statistic that should gladden the hearts of future leaders, from toy manufacturers to university presidents.
The Center reported that the U.S. fertility rate has stabilized for the first time in five years. In 2007 the rate was 69 live births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 to 44. Thereafter it had begun to decline. In 2012 it stood at 63 births for every 1,000 women.
To put this in context, in 1960, the rate was 118 births; in 1909, 127 births.
In 2007 the total fertility rate stood at 2.12 per woman, according to Demographic Intelligence. In 2011 it stood at 1.89. A year later it increased slightly to 1.9.
This possible future trend is important for students, school and university administrators, food, auto, clothing and toy producers, to name a few. It may possibly herald an increase in the U.S. birth rate, and it comes none too soon.
A declining birth rate bodes ill for at least two crucial economic reasons. First, it leads to a reduction in a population that consumes everything from schoolbooks to diapers to baby cribs to cars to houses. An expanding population is a key driver of a robust economy.
Second, the declining birth rate threatens the income of those who are retired and receive Social Security benefits. According to the 2011 annual report by the Social Security Board of Trustees, in 1990 there were approximately five working people for every person of retirement age. By 2035 that number will have fallen to three workers for every retiree.
Although the economy influences the birth rate, other factors also play a critical role.
For one thing, the Baby Boomers, the 76 million people born between 1946 and 1964, have had fewer children than their parents. This is due to, among other things, the increased education of this cohort and the rise of working women. Both education and the employment of women have been shown to decrease the birth rate.
Yet another demographic factor that has had an enormous effect on the economy is abortion. According to the Guttmacher Institute, roughly 50 million induced abortions have been performed since 1973. In other words, the U.S. would have about 50 million more people needing to be fed, clothed, and educated.
These additional people would have had a powerful influence on the economy. To put matters into perspective, the babies aborted since 1973 would have equaled two-thirds the size of the baby boomer cohort. We can only speculate on the increased economic activity that would have been generated by 50 million additional citizens.
The argument that abortion is strictly a woman’s private choice ignores the larger societal and economic picture. Abortion has enormous social and economic consequences, not to mention moral. In short, there’s no such thing as a purely “personal” choice.
Society is currently searching for solutions to aid working women torn between their careers and a desire for a family. A child takes time, attention, money and effort; ask anyone who has raised one.
We need to find a way to cherish every child conceived, support every parent in his or her effort to raise a child, and create a more family-friendly environment for both men and women in the workplace.
When society holds working women in higher esteem than stay-at-home moms, the message rings loud and clear: motherhood is a second-rate vocation.
When we reach that stage, we are in peril, economically, socially and morally. Birth rates will decline, and the moral, social and economic consequences can scarcely be envisioned.
