The most recent Bowling Green State University (BGSU) poll shows President Donald Trump’s approval continues to fall in Ohio and close races for governor and US Senate in the right-leaning state ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Democracy and Public Policy Network in the Department of Political Science at BGSU released the results of it’s fifth web-based poll. With a four-person research team lead by Robert Alexander, professor of politcal sciene and founding director of the network, the team gathered information from 800 Ohio registered voters.
Ohio has been a comfortable Trump state in the three presidential elections he has run in, but his approval continues to slip in the state, going from a -1% favorability rating in April to a -10% favorability rating in October.
Alexander said it should not be assumed that Trump’s electoral success in the state means he is liked in the state.
“Just because you’re winning elections doesn’t mean you’re necessarily popular,” said Alexander. “When it’s a two-person race, he’s done very well. When it’s a polling question, where there’s a little bit more opportunity to voice your opinion, there are some reservations out there.”
The poll also shows a competitive Senate race, with former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a dead heat with current Republican Sen. Jon Husted, showing a 49% to 48% in favor of Brown. The poll also shows a similarly competitive gubernatorial race with former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy narrowly beating Democrat Dr. Amy Acton 50% to 47%. Ramaswamy also beats former Democrat congressman Tim Ryan 49% to 47% in the poll, although Ryan has not announced whether he will run or not.
Ohio has increasingly become a solid red state in recent years and though the poll shows Democrats doing well, Alexander said that the party should exercise caution.
“I think that Democrats certainly have a lot of good things that they can pull out of this poll that they would feel good about, but I would urge caution again,” said Alexander. “The fundamentals in the state have done very well for Republicans. It would be a surprise if Sherrod Brown, if any Democrat, were to win at the statewide level. I think Republicans are still favored to win and they haven’t really started campaigning yet.”
Alexander said the poll is a snapshot of the current political climate and is meant to inform, not to speculate.
“A big piece of what we’re trying to do is to be able to provide people with information so that they can kind of get a better understanding of the environment around them,” said Alexander. “We’re not trying to engage in prediction; what people do with the poll is beyond our control. We are as transparent as possible in our methodology and the way we go about asking our questions and the questions that we ask. We are striving to be a strong, reputable pollster in the state and hope that our work is showing that.”
The web-based poll consisted of 800 Ohio registered voters, and was conducted from Oct. 2-Oct. 14. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.5% points. For more information, visit BGSU’s poll page.
