It is the time of year when a team’s talent and the quality of their play matter far less than their final record after the series is over. A team can play terribly, win both games and still celebrate despite the mistakes. Conversely, a team can play the best they have all season, lose both games and the weekend is undoubtedly a failure.
This is no different in the case of the Central Collegiate Hockey Association (CCHA) and the Group of Five teams just a weekend’s worth of points away from the MacNaughton Cup (regular season champion).
Bowling Green stumbled back to fifth place after a one-point weekend series against Minnesota State, who now holds the final home-playoff berth. BG is the first team out of home playoff, yet the only of those five teams to be in contention for not only a top-four seed, but the MacNaughton Cup.
For Falcon hockey fans, with five teams in the mix and four of them playing this weekend, the scenarios are almost as important to watch as they games themselves.
CCHA Update
3 points for a win
2 points for an overtime/shootout win
1 point for an overtime/shootout loss
0 points for a loss
Augustana sits atop the conference with 50 points, but plays no more games this regular season. St. Thomas and Michigan Tech are tied for second and third with 48 points, Minnesota State is fourth with 46 and Bowling Green is the final team competing for the top spot with 44.
All of the following scenarios revolve around Bowling Green’s possibilities at each of the five available seeds. The MacNaughton Cup would not guarantee the number one seed in the Mason Cup playoff, as tiebreakers are used to determine seeding, but not the regular season champion.
For the MacNaughton Cup
To earn the MacNaughton Cup and the first seed in the Mason Cup playoffs, Bowling Green needs to sweep Michigan Tech. This is the most they would control their destiny, bringing them to a tie at 50 with Augustana, who currently leads the CCHA.
BG would need Bemidji State to hold St. Thomas to two or fewer points, and Northern Michigan to hold Minnesota State to four or fewer points. These max totals would bring UST and MSU to 50 points, meaning a four-way tie with BG and Augustana to co-own the MacNaughton Cup.
If UST or MSU attain more than these totals (51 or more points), they would own the cup. If they take less than these totals (49 points or less), they would miss out on the regular-season championship.
For the No. 1 seed
A tiebreaker is used for co-MacNaughton Cup champions to determine their seeding in the Mason Cup Playoffs.
The first seed, for any team, relies on the MacNaughton Cup. Like the first scenario, BG needs to sweep Michigan Tech, the only piece of gaining the one seed they completely control, but still can at-most tie Augustana.
They also need St. Thomas to take one or zero points and Minnesota State to take three or fewer points. BG owns the tiebreaker over Augustana, but those teams would likely own a tiebreaker over BG in a four or three-way tie situation.
If the Falcons finish as the No. 1 seed, they are guaranteed to play No. 8 Ferris State, as all the first-place finishers would. FSU cannot catch Lake Superior State (ahead of them in the standings) and cannot miss the tournament. BG is 4-0 against FSU this season.
For the No. 2 or No. 3 seed
Bowling Green can sweep Michigan Tech, win the MacNaughton Cup, but finish as the second or third seed with St. Thomas and Minnesota State tying them at 50.
BG most likely loses the tiebreaker to St. Thomas and Minnesota State and wins it against Augustana, thus the worst-case scenario for the Falcons after sweeping Michigan Tech is 3+ points for UST and 5+ points for MSU.
BG can also gain the No. 2 or No.3 seed in a host of other ways, still depending on how St. Thomas does against Bemidji State and Minnesota State does against Northern Michigan. Either way, Bowling Green taking six points can finish no lower than third in conference seeding.
As the second seed BG’s most likely opponent would be Lake Superior State or Bemidji State, who cannot finish any lower than seventh and no higher than sixth. BG is 3-1 against LSSU and 2-1-1 against BSU this season.
For the No. 4 seed
The most likely outcome for both St. Thomas and Minnesota State is that they very easily win their weekend and gain a point total unattainable by BG (51+). To finish at least fourth, the final home playoff slot, the Falcons need at least five points against Michigan Tech.
This ensures BG at least ties Michigan Tech at 49 and owns the tiebreaker in head-to-head over the Huskies. This would force MTU to fifth place and make the first-round Mason Cup quarterfinal matchup a rematch of the last two seasons’, between the Falcons and Huskies.
Other scenarios include BG taking at least three points and Minnesota State being swept by Northern Michigan. This is unbelievably unlikely as NMU is one of the worst teams in the NCAA, much less the CCHA.
In this scenario, BG would play MSU in the first round of the playoffs at home in the Slater Family Ice Arena.
For the No. 5 seed
According to PlayoffStatus.com, the No. 5 seed is probably where the Falcons will end up. This is due to a combination of both St. Thomas and Minnesota State playing bottom teams in the CCHA and the Falcons playing a top-three team in Michigan Tech.
The most points BG can win and still end up outside of the home playoff is four. This puts BG at 48, meaning Minnesota State would only need two points (against the last-place team in the CCHA) to stay in the top four.
It is a near-complete toss-up on who BG would play as the five seed. PlayoffStatus.com lists Augustana as the most likely opponent (61%) but also reasonable chances for St. Thomas and Minnesota State to finish fourth.
BG is 2-2-2 against those three teams on the road and 3-4-3 against St. Thomas, Augustana and Minnesota State in any environment this season.
Quick seeding facts (CCHA since 2022)
- Minnesota State has been the No. 1 seed three times, won the Mason Cup all three
- No seed below No. 4 has made the title game
- No No. 2 seeds have made the CCHA final
- No. 2 seeds have been upset in quarterfinals in both of the last two seasons
- The smallest point separation between the No. 1 and No. 4 seeds is ten, right now it is four
- No. 4 seeds have never had a record better than 14-12
- No. 5/6/7/8 seeds in the semifinal have lost by a combined score of 23-4
- The most 40+ point teams in a season are three (currently there are five)
Bowling Green cannot finish any lower than the fifth seed with a possibility they are able to win the regular season championship. One could argue that this season has been the best for Bowling Green as a member of the new CCHA and have exceeded their previous season points high (41) by a full win with a chance to add on more.
Their last series, against Michigan Tech this Friday and Saturday, is the Falcons’ last chance to make a big run at the top of the conference.
